Four things worth knowing about how it behaves. If you are a maximalist, three of them will matter to you.
In a downtrend this strategy moves to cash and buys back lower. That is the whole mechanism. If you will never sell a single sat under any circumstance, this is not the strategy for you, and no backtest should change your mind.
Judge it the way you judge everything: did the round trip end with more one of five assets than simply holding? That is the only comparison that matters, and it is the one printed on the card below.
When BTC only goes up, holding wins — you cannot beat a rocket by stepping off it. The edge shows up across a full cycle, and above all in the drawdown you never had to sit through. Use the range buttons on each chart and check the bad years yourself.
You get the signal. Your coins stay where you keep them, on your exchange or in your own hands. We never touch them and never ask for a withdrawal key.
The card tells you what the strategy holds right now. “100% on BTC” means fully in one of five assets today; “100% in CASH” means fully out. Click the card to open its full record.
Two decisions a day. It reads the market at each 12-hour close — 00:00 and 12:00 UTC — and either stays put or switches side. Twice the cadence of the daily line, and the reason this one reacts faster to a turn.
Orange means you are in one of five assets, green means you are in cash. The position history inside the card paints one band per holding period, so a whole year of decisions reads at a glance — and you can see exactly which crashes it sat out.
The short side needs a perpetual futures account, and we measured what that costs. Holding a perpetual short means paying or receiving a funding rate every eight hours. We took Binance's own published funding history for SUI and ETH — the assets this book actually shorts — and applied it to every short it took: the effect is +0.50% on the since-2023 result. It is income, not a cost: funding is positive most of the time, and whoever is short collects it. The figures above leave it out, so they are slightly conservative, not optimistic.
Here the venue was never the problem. Binance opened a perpetual for each asset this book shorts before the book ever shorted it — SUI on May 3 2023 and ETH on Nov 27 2019 — so not one of its 10 shorts falls in a stretch where the trade would have been impossible to place. That is not the norm: on bitcoin the gap between the spot market and its perpetual was two years, and cutting the unplaceable trades out of another product in this catalogue cost more than half of its headline figure.
History is a simulated backtest, not money that was made. It shows how the rules would have behaved on past prices, which is useful and is not a promise. Only the part after the go-live date is a live, forward record. None of this is investment advice.